Lagging Behind

Week Six Polls

It looks like Sanders has been staying steady as Clinton reaches 50% support. Sander's remains at 30%, trailing Clinton by 20 points. Although, there are a few different polls that have been showing numbers as low as 25.5% for Bernie Sanders at this point.

Some seem to be wondering what will happen to Bernie Sander's "army of young voters" if he looses. It seems as though Sanders relies rather heavily on voters that are between the ages of 18 to 45 years old. A good 45% of the voters under 34 years old have a positive view of Bernie Sanders, but he seems to especially catch the eye of younger voters who are currently upset with the government. According to NBCNews about 50% of democrat leaning voters are not satisfied with the federal government, along with another fourth who are clearly upset. 43% of these unhappy voters support Sanders, giving him the upper hand to Clinton who only has the support of 38% of these voters. Even though younger voters haven't contributed much to the primary vote, as those above the age of forty tend to make up 67% of the primary vote, it seems as though in the past couple of elections younger voters have been slowly gaining more power.

Despite these polls, Sanders hasn't seemed to have lost spirit.  13ABC News reports Sanders shrugging off the low polls, quite literally, saying, "...poll numbers go up and they go down."  If what he says is true, then there is always hope for Sanders' future polls.

Sources: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-hillary-clinton-hits-fifty-percent-support-n454556 

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/10/30/if-bernie-sanders-loses-what-happens-to-his-army-of-young-voters/

http://www.13abc.com/home/headlines/Exclusive-Bernie-Sanders-shrugs-off-lagging-poll-numbers-337790981.html

Bernie Sanders' Position on Guns

"Bernie Sanders believes that gun control is largely a state issue because attitudes and actions with regards to firearms differ greatly between rural and urban communities. Nevertheless, Bernie believes there are situations where the federal government should intervene. He voted in favor of requiring background checks to prevent firearms from getting into the hands of felons and the mentally ill, passing a federal ban on assault weapons, and closing loopholes which allows private sellers at gun shows and on the internet to sell to individuals without background checks."

Source:
Bernie Sanders on Gun Policy
http://feelthebern.org/bernie-sanders-on-gun-policy/

Fundraising: Week of October 19

While solid fundraising statistics have not arisen since the Q3 reports released weeks ago; Bernie Sander's fundraising style continues to garner attention and inspire optimism. Both in absolute tern and relative to his primary challenger, Hillary Clinton, Sanders is fundraising via numerous small donations. For example, according to Q3 reports, Sanders and Clinton have raised comparable total sums: both around 27 million dollars over 4 months. However, A majority of Clinton's donation money, $16 million dollars to be exact, has come in the form of "max-out" donations, meaning the donor contributed the maximum amount allowed by law. Sanders, on the other hand, has raised less than a million through these max-out donations. One way that this information has been interpreted optimistically for Sanders is that it means almost all of his donors are able to contribute again in the future: perhaps lending long term power to the ongoing fundraising campaign.

Sanders Gains Ground

Polls

It seems as though the gap between Clinton and Sanders has slimmed down to a fine 7% with Hilary Clinton at 48% and Sanders catching up with 41%.  Their chances seemed to have increased after their impressive performance during the debate along with Joe Biden's departure, leaving his supporters turning to other candidates, such as Sanders, for alternatives.

Though, it seems as though Sanders has encountered an issue among many democrats, including his own supporters.  His position on guns.  Sanders acts in the interest of gun owners, which seems to be an unpopular stance in the democratic wing.  As mentioned in an earlier post, he advocates that America should close the loopholes in gun legislation, ban assault weapons, and increase mental healthcare in order to prevent gun involved crimes that have been happening much more than ever. According to the article, Iowa Poll: Gap Tightens Between Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, 46% of Sanders' own supporters, along with about 60% of the Democratic causcusgoers, are troubled by his gun views.  Thus, posing a possible challenge for his future.

Sources:  Iowa Poll: Gap Tightens Between Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders 
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2015/10/22/iowa-poll-clinton-up-gap-tightens/74375360/

Week Three Review

Polling

According to polls that were released on Friday, it seems as though Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are at a close tie. Surprisingly, the debate brought Clinton in front of Sanders in the state of New Hampshire, with Clinton leading at 37% and Sanders following at a close 35%.

This sudden rise in polls is probably due to the two's performances during the recent Democratic Debate.  Most of the democratic poll declared that Clinton had won the debate while a little less than a quarter believed that Sanders won, instead.  Though, there has been some controversy on this topic as several news agencies have reported that CNN had tampered with their polls and created a pro-Clinton agenda by deleting pro-Sanders comments and polls.  Thus, making Clinton the unstoppable winner of their polls.

Fundraising

Nevertheless, Sanders seems to have had an increase in his fundraising during the third quarter. Philip Bump's article, Bernie Sanders's Vast Universe of Donors, Mapped, states that the amount of locations that Sander's gathers his donations from has multiplied since the second quarter. Earlier, he was only receiving money from about 3,400 different ZIP codes, but now it has grown to a staggering 8,400 ZIP codes from all around the country. With his quickly expanding donor pool, Sanders will have a bright future as he has many people to rely on for the growing number of donations needed for his campaigning.

Sources:

Polling: Rebecca Shabad's Poll: Clinton Deadlocked with Sanders in New Hampshire http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-clinton-deadlocked-with-sanders-in-new-hampshire/

CNN's suspected trickery: Elizabeth Miller's CNN Deletes Pro-Bernie Sanders Poll and User Comments http://www.nationofchange.org/2015/10/15/cnn-deletes-pro-bernie-sanders-poll-and-user-comments/

Fundraising: Philip Bump's Bernie Sanders's Vast Universe of Donors, Mapped
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/10/16/bernie-sanderss-vast-universe-of-donors-mapped/ 

Foreign Policy

Ever since Bernie Sanders has been asked more often on the topic of foreign policy, people have been left with more questions than answers. Instead of answering questions posed to him by critics and others, he has been giving us answers, but not ones that answer the questions being posed, such as questions on what he would do differently than Hillary Clinton about Syria, or when he would use offensive force. This has been inspiring controversy among supporters and non-supporters, leading some to question exactly how prepared he is to take the role of president.

Source: http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/10/bernie-sanders-democrats-foreign-policy/410917/

Polling

The latest national polling data, from October 5th, has remained fairly steady over the last week. Sanders trails Clinton by 16 points. Polling has also been fairly stagnant in the key states of Iowa and New Hampshire. While Sanders possesses a nine point lead in New Hampshire, and is expected by many to win the state, he still trails Hillary by six points in Iowa. Some, including myself, predicted that this week would be more tumultuous given the gun debate made present by the recent tragedy in oregon. However, this does not appear to be the case.

Fundraising

New numbers on fundraising have been relatively scare in the wake of major milestones being accomplished last week. Sanders continues to raise money from a wide and shallow donor pool, collecting hundreds of thousands of small donations and being unwilling to accept large donations. Many pundits have speculated as to the staying power of this fundraising strategy, though Sanders appears committed. Even for a recently announced LA fundraising event, Sanders has set a cap, at $2700, for large donations, which pales in comparison to the multi million dollar contributions received by almost every other major contender for the presidency.* While this strategy seems risky, it carries with it a second constituent part that is already showing itself prominently in places like New Hampshire: an organized task force of volunteers. If Sanders has a weakness in fundraising ability, he also has a strength in grassroots organization. How these elements interact and balance is still to be seen.

Looking Forward

Next Tuesday, Anderson Cooper will host the first democratic primary debate. This will be the defining event in next week's political movements for Sanders. In the lead up to the debates, candidates typically enter a rigorous process of preparation. Alternatively, Sanders has opted for a less formal strategy, instead the senator began being coached for the debates earlier this week at the behest of his primary aids. Bernie Sanders seems to believe that he is prepared to present his ideals to a very large audience for the first time-- doing exactly what he has been for 30 years, with more people listening. 

*Correction Necessary. The $2700 cap is a legal limit on campaign contributions. This is often circumvented via the use of super PACs, to which unlimited contributions may be made. However, super PAC contributions are distinct from direct contributions to a candidate. While it is true that Sanders has publicly denounced the use of super PACs, and does not appear to be supported by any currently, the $2700 contribution limit above is was not put in place by the Sanders campaign.

Bernie Sanders' Call to Action After Horrifying Shooting

    "...We have got to do something.  We have to stop shouting at each other..."

Once again, devastation hits another American school.  On the first day of October a shooting broke out at Umpqua Community College, leaving the country to watch headlines in utter horror as the death toll rose to ten.
  Bernie Sanders addressed this tragedy several times on an interview with Chris Hayes on MSNBC and through several Facebook posts.  As quoted on one of his Facebook posts, he, along with fellow Americans, are, "horrified by these never-ending mass shootings."  Bernie Sanders declares that we must stop "shouting at each other", we must stop arguing and pointing fingers, and find a way to put an end to these ever-more constant and senseless shootings.  Instead of fighting with each other, he wishes that we would eliminate the loopholes in gun legislation in order to make sure that, "guns should not be in the hands of people who should not have them", which would include those who have criminal records or are mentally ill.  Not only that, but he believes that weapons that were specifically designed to kill people shouldn't even be handed out to the public.  Though, in order to keep the guns out of the hands of those who should not have them we need a much stronger background check system.  As for those with mental illnesses, he calls for America to significantly improve their mental health facilities' abilities to aid those who are in need of psychological help.  His last appeal is to lower the amount of surprising violence that is portrayed throughout America's media, in effort to keep it from happening again.

Sources:
Interview with MSNBC: http://www.msnbc.com/all-in/watch/sanders-reacts-to-ore-campus-shooting-536939587812 
Facebook Post: https://www.facebook.com/senatorsanders/posts/10154265638527908

Sanders: Week In Review

Bernie Sanders is strong through the week of the September 28; campaign instability to come, for better or worse.

Polling

The latest national polling data available, from September 30, shows Bernie Sanders tracking steadily behind Hillary Clinton. While national polling data shows Hillary Clinton with a 14 percent lead over the senator, in the key early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire, The race is very much alive. Sanders trails Clinton by only three and a half percent in Iowa, and leads the democratic front-runner by nine percent in New Hampshire. Wins in these states early in the primary process would give the Senator significant momentum moving into later primary competitions, a type of energy which the sander's campaign has shown an uncanny ability to capitalize on. If sanders can prove early that he is a powerful contender in the primary contest, and show supporters that he has a strong chance in a general election, many Clinton supporters may abandon their safe-bet candidate for the more radical idealist. This type of exedous from the Clinton camp could produce a primary landslide with energy sufficient to have implications in the general election. On the other hand, a share of Sanders' supporters may be willing to jump ship for a safer bet at a democratic presidency if the campaign, once considered a long shot, shows signs its losing steam.

The Washington Post's Attack; Liberal Journalism's Rebuttal

Yesterday the Washington Post leveled an attack against the Sanders Campaign, specifically criticizing the feasibility of actualizing Sanders' goal of free college education for all Americans. The article is framed to echo long abandoned anti-socialist rhetoric dating back from the cold war period, frequently using words like "bureaucracy" and "control". The substance of the article is a speculative critique of the difficulties involved in allocating federal funds to public universities, and it points out significant inefficiencies in the status-quo, where federal funding of this type is minimal. It argues, intuitively, that these bureaucratic problems will be magnified by an influx of federal dollars, and that inefficiency will eat away at taxpayer money and inflate already high cost of the proposition. However, in a Huffington Post article, Robert Reich fires back. He reminds readers that in the 1960's and 70's, federal and state funding of public institutions made up for a large share of their costs, tuition was low, and American education thrived. In the 1980's, this funding started drying up, and ever since, tuition has been skyrocketing. We now refer often to both our education crisis and our student debt crisis. The author also pointed out that in lue of government funding, private corporations sometimes step in to fill voids in public college's budgets, often in exchange for having say in the curriculum. This point counters and outweighs the Washington Post's fears of government controlled curriculum even before Reich provides an example of corporate controlled and approved economic curriculum. While The Washington Post's article served as a well framed attack on the Senator, its language may contain more punch than the substance behind it. Before a rebuttal was in place, the Washington post article appeared speculative and oversold, though not devoid of reason for legitimate concern. However, when the substantive layer is rebutted and analysed in depth, only the framing of the arguments continues to be of any consequence.

Fundraising Milestones Boost Confidence

A significant source of campaign news early in this week was Bernie Sanders' significant fundraising haul. Sanders became the first candidate of the election to reach one million individual campaign contributions, with small donor contributions being a staple of the campaign. Sander's third quarter contributions also rivaled, though did not match, those of Hillary Clinton, who is seen to have the support of the democratic establishment and much more "big money" support. In a final comparison, Sanders, who's campaign has many parallels to Obama's 2008 campaign, has now raised more money to date than had Barrack Obama's at this time in 2007. Sanders frequently campaigns on his unwillingness to accept corporate contributions, and pledges to reform the campaign finance system. To see a candidate raise competitive funds without violating his own convictions about the corruption of campaign finance is a hopeful sign to many who support Sanders' ideas on the issue.

Looking Forward: an Inevitable, Disgusting, Debate on Guns

In light of the recent tragedy in Oregon, politicians of all parties will be forced to address the issue of gun control, as it is currently framed in the national spectrum. This will affect the pull of candidates' campaigns, however morbid it may be to calculate political effects of a killing. Bernie Sanders' statements on this issue, as well as his poll movement, will be interesting to watch. The Vermont Senator doesn't take the hard left, activist anti gun positions of other democrats, and as of yet has not shown any willingness to pander. As a senator of a primarily rural state, and as one who is in fact quite popular with the conservative portion of his constituency, his approach to gun control is much more nuanced than the polarizing approaches debated about in the political spotlight. While he advocates closing loopholes that allow criminals and the mentally ill to obtain weapons, the Senator has also defended the rural hunting lifestyle. This moderate and tempered approach is likely in line with what a majority of Americans want to see. However, in the days after a shooting, other democratic hopefuls may be willing to make bold statements on gun control that sanders cannot match. How Sanders' base will react to the senator appearing to be on the conservative side of the democratic field on this issue is yet to be seen, though it may be an uncomfortable position for some liberal activists within his base, I believe that an overwhelming majority will be satisfied with Sanders' long held, more moderate gun positions, about which he has always been transparent. There has also long been talk of a subset of the republican party coming to support Bernie Sanders for his social libertarianism. A failure to give in to political pressure to condemn gun ownership may help the candidate with this constituency in the general election.