As Momentum in the Polls Stalls, Sanders Campaign Goes on the Offensive

In the wake of the first democratic primary debate, and with Joe Biden confirming his non-candidacy and Caffee and Webb dropping out, the last couple weeks should have been tumultuous for all candidates from a polling perspective. Instead, we watched Clinton maintain or gradually increase share of the vote, relative to Senator Sanders. Sanders' Iowa prospects have all but evaporated, and what was once a commanding lead in New Hampshire has narrowed to a single percentage point. In national polling clinton has maintained around a 20 point lead on the Senator.

Times of increased uncertainty, in any competition, are always the most nerve wracking for those who are in the lead. The Clinton campaign, with the candidate to beat, has emerged from the latest round of unknowns not profoundly stronger than before, but not profoundly weaker either.

With a stagnating campaign, well behind in most polls, the burden is on Sanders to renew the uncertainty. This appears to be exactly what his campaign is doing.

A series of moves by the Sanders campaign have unfolded in the last week. A 2 million dollar ad buy took place, and adds began airing tuesday in Iowa and New Hampshire. Additionally, while early in the campaign Senator Sanders expresses a disinterest in directly attacking Hillary Clinton, recent statements have walked a thin line between compare and contrast exercises and outright negativity. Lastly, and significantly, the senator, who is often admired for having championed the same issues for his entire political career, has taken a relatively new position in the last week. On Wednesday, Bernie Sanders filed a bill to decriminalize marijuana at the federal level. While almost all experts agree that US drug law, particularly around marijuana, is due for reform, the timing of this aggressive stance form the senator seems to suggest that the move is largely an appeal to young liberal voters, who, more than any other demographic, support legalization. This same demographic happens to be a large part of the Senator's political base.

It is yet to be seen how Sander's new intensity will affect polls. He is certainly fulfilling his tactical burden in this moment though: to keep things interesting, and insodoing keep his campaign alive. given time and effort, or alternately or much of anything unforeseen, momentum may well swing back towards the presidential longshot, who is very much still in the race, and seems to plan on sticking around.